This panorama first contains a study on the strength of the British recovery. Thanks to vigorous growth since the second quarter of 2012, we anticipate the UK economy to get back to its pre-crisis level in the third quarter of 2014.
A positive short term economic context, like dynamic corporate investment, supported by the flexible monetary policy of the Central Bank, led us to upgrade our risk assessment for the UK to A2.
This appraisal is strenghtened by the recent decisions by the monetary authorities to cool down the real estate bubble.
Then we move on in details to the sectoral level, with an analysis from the risk underwriting director for Coface UK. Working in the field, he is on the whole optimistic about their evolution, but points out some remaining significant weak-nesses in the British economy, in particular the indebtedness of the private sector and the persistent current account deficit.
After a worrying process of de-industrialisation, the study pays particular attention to the renewal of the industry, in sectors which already display impressive successes : the automotive, aero-nautics and pharmaceutical industries.
Thanks to considerable investment in R&D and remarkable innovations, these sectors are composed of competitive firms which have managed in a relatively short period of time to become world leaders.
Finally, we present in this panorama the last changes in our country ratings (which measure the ability of companies in any given country to make payments), as well as an update on our analyses for countries that are currently under intense media coverage : Russia, Brazil, Italy, India or Algeria.
Download this publication :The british recovery : miracle or mirage
Restructuring and bankruptcy remain increasingly used procedures.
Activity in Brazil remains lacklustre, inflation above targets and interest rates are amongst the highest in the world. Various indexes show that confidence in Brazil remains down, while the low investment ratio continues to deteriorate.
Romania at the front line of economic growth in 2013 – but will it catch up after the contraction in 2014?
Romania’s economic performance has made it one of the leaders in Europe’s recovery. Its growth has exceeded expectations, with GDP rising by 3.5% in 2013. Significant contributions came from the agricultural and industrial sectors, in particular from car production supplying mainly foreign customers. Although Romania will not continue this pace of growth in 2014, the outlook remains positive.
Last changes on country risk assessments
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160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
Our evaluations are based on:
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Our analyses use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk, these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.
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