Coface Group

Economic Studies

The british recovery : miracle or mirage
The british recovery : miracle or mirage

This panorama first contains a study on the strength of the British recovery. Thanks to vigorous growth since the second quarter of 2012, we anticipate the UK economy to get back to its pre-crisis level in the third quarter of 2014.
A positive short term economic context, like dynamic corporate investment, supported by the flexible monetary policy of the Central Bank, led us to upgrade our risk assessment for the UK to A2.
 
This appraisal is strenghtened by the recent decisions by the monetary authorities to cool down the real estate bubble.
 
Then we move on in details to the sectoral level, with an analysis from the risk underwriting director for Coface UK. Working in the field, he is on the whole optimistic about their evolution, but points out some remaining significant weak-nesses in the British economy, in particular the indebtedness of the private sector and the persistent current account deficit.
 
After a worrying process of de-industrialisation, the study pays particular attention to the renewal of the industry, in sectors which already display impressive successes : the automotive, aero-nautics and pharmaceutical industries.
Thanks to considerable investment in R&D and remarkable innovations, these sectors are composed of competitive firms which have managed in a relatively short period of time to become world leaders.
 
Finally, we present in this panorama the last changes in our country ratings (which measure the ability of companies in any given country to make payments), as well as an update on our analyses for countries that are currently under intense media coverage : Russia, Brazil, Italy, India or Algeria.
 

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The british recovery : miracle or mirage

Last changes on country risk assessments

Country Previous assessment New assessment
Austria A2 Under positive watch list A1
Germany A2 Under positive watch list A1
Kenya C Under positive watch list B
Nigeria D Under positive watch list C
Spain B B Under positive watch list

160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
 
Our evaluations are based on:
- our macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk,
- our contextual business expertise,
- our microeconomic expertise built up over 60 years of payment experience.
 
Our analyses use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk, these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.

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Last changes on country risk assessments

Countries under negative watch list
Countries under positive watch list
Country Previous assessment New assessment
Austria A2 A1
Germany A2 A1
Kenya C B
Latvia B B
Nigeria D C
Rwanda D C
Spain B B
Sri Lanka C C
United Kingdom A3 A2

Economic publications

ECONOMIC KNOWLEDGE IN CONCENTRATED FORM

Coface’s “Panorama” publications aim to help businesses evaluate and guard against risks and make their decisions based on the most relevant, reliable and recent information.
 
Capitalising on the expertise of our economists, underwriters and specialists in business information and debt recovery, these publications have a dual objective: 
 
- provide the reader with regular statistical monitoring by means of a quarterly indicator;
- offer content for reflection and analysis by focusing on a particular theme.

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