2025 should see the end of hesitant consumers in spite of strong growth
The Danish economy is poised for steady growth in 2025, underpinned by the robust pharmaceutical sector that continues to support exports and shield the economy from many of the broader global weaknesses. While household consumption remained subdued in 2024, a more favourable economic environment is expected to drive a recovery. Rising real wages, supported by solid nominal wage growth and moderating inflation, will boost disposable incomes, while higher employment levels and increasing house prices will strengthen consumer confidence through wealth effects.
Monetary policy will also play a key role, as Nationalbanken, the Danish central bank, is set to follow the ECB in lowering interest rates, making borrowing more attractive for both households and businesses. This, combined with an uptick in government spending, will provide additional support to domestic demand, helping to sustain economic activity. Overall, with a strong external sector and improving domestic conditions, the Danish economy is expected to remain resilient in 2025.
Corporate insolvencies are expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, following a period of easing in the past two years after an uptick. While an improving domestic demand and lower interest rates provide support the private sector, the landscape remains challenging due to still high gas and electricity prices and a fragile export environment, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and tariffs.
Positive balances despite rising public spending
The 2025 outlook reflects a continued robust fiscal stance; however, higher public spending, including increased defence expenditures, is expected to lead to a narrowing of the public balance but it should remain positive as tax revenue are expected to rise due to higher wages and strong corporate sector. Despite this, Denmark's public debt level is projected to remain low by international standards, reinforcing the country’s strong debt sustainability.
Denmark's current account balance in 2025 is expected to remain positive, supported by strong goods and services exports. However, after a particularly strong 2024, the surplus is likely to narrow slightly due to a more moderate external demand environment and ongoing global uncertainties. While large domestic companies continue to contribute to periodic fluctuations, Denmark’s structurally competitive export sector (pharmaceutical, food, energy etc.) ensures that the current account remains in a solid position overall.
Global tensions are affecting Denmark
The political landscape in Denmark remains relatively stable under the centrist government, comprised of the Prime Minister’s Mette Frederiksen’s centre-left Social Democrats, centre-right Liberal Party, and centrist Moderates with the next election having to be held before October 2026. Despite internal disagreement about pension and economic policies, an early election seems unlikely given the government's current unpopularity (polling at around 35%. The municipal and regional elections in November 2025 will be a good indicator of the popularity of the current government, especially as healthcare and the climate are back as the most important issues followed by defence.
The renewed interest from Donald Trump in Greenland has spurred further discussions in Denmark on the future of the Kingdom of Denmark (Denmark, Faroe Islands, and Greenland), especially with the Greenlandic election in 2025. Increased public spending, especially on defence (aiming to reach 3% of GDP by 2033 from around 2% in 2024 with DKK 15 billion, around EUR 2 billion, specifically going to the defence of Greenland), is resulting in more discussion around how to finance this rise which is resulting in both reforming aspects of the public sector and potentially higher taxes.