Lower rates should help a gradual recovery
In 2025, the Finnish economy is expected to rebound after two years of contraction, supported by declining interest rates that provide much-needed relief to households as the European Central Bank is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025. Given the widespread use of variable mortgage rates, lower borrowing costs will translate into improved household finances, boosting consumption. The housing sector, which has faced significant headwinds, is set to see a gradual recovery as financing conditions ease and buyer confidence slowly returns.
Given the slow improvement in domestic conditions, the government remains committed to its fiscal reform agenda, aiming to narrow the budget deficit. However, progress is expected to be limited, as balancing fiscal consolidation with economic recovery and public sentiment presents ongoing challenges for the government. Meanwhile, the external outlook remains uncertain. Exporters continue to face a weak global trade environment, while businesses grapple with rising wage pressures. High pay demands, coupled with growing tensions over the government’s planned reforms, raise the risk of industrial action, which could disrupt key sectors and weigh on the recovery.
Corporate insolvencies have been growing for four consecutive years (+5% y-o-y in 2024) and are expected to remain high in 2025 as companies on the plus side see stronger domestic demand and lower interest costs but also see lacklustre exports and rising costs as well as disruptions due to strikes.
Government to find fiscal consolidation difficult
The fiscal landscape for 2025 is shaped by the government’s ongoing efforts to narrow the public deficit through controlled spending, selective tax measures, and structural reforms. While overall expenditure restraint remains a priority, increased defence spending in response to geopolitical developments limits the extent of fiscal consolidation. As a result, the deficit is expected to narrow slightly, but not enough to prevent a continued rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Finland’s current account balance remains characterised by a goods surplus offset by a persistent service deficit, driven in part by strong outbound travel. The current account deficit is expected to remain roughly unchanged in 2025, as any improvements in the goods balance or primary income are likely to be counteracted by ongoing external challenges and subdued export growth.
Regional and municipal elections will highlight dissatisfaction
The current centre right coalition government led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo from the National Coalition Party (KOK), in association with Finns Party, the Swedish People's Party (RKP), and the Christian Democrats (KD), continue to be behind in polls with some voters unhappy with their reform plans, including cuts to labour benefits as well as spending cuts. Regional and municipal elections in April this year will give a clear indication of the support of the government. Strike actions continue to hinder the economy as unions are unhappy with current pay offers.
Key issues affecting domestic politics remain the complex situation on the eastern border with Russia, which resulted in Finland joining NATO in 2023, and the Defence Cooperation Agreement between Finland and the United States (2024) that gives the American forces access to 15 installations and permission to store equipment and weapons on Finnish soil. The deteriorated relationship between Trump’s administration and European counterparts could complicate its application.