Interest rate cuts will continue to help the economy
The Swedish economy in 2025 is set to continue its gradual recovery, driven by a recovery in household consumption. After a sluggish 2024, improving labour market conditions, higher real wages, and lower taxes are expected to provide much-needed support to spending. Additionally, declining interest rates and a stabilising housing market are likely to bolster consumer confidence, with wealth effects further reinforcing household demand. Additionally, public sector activity is expected to act as a counterbalance, with increased spending and investment, particularly in defence and infrastructure, providing stability to the broader economy.
Despite these positive domestic developments, external risks persist. A relatively weak Swedish krona should continue to support exports, but the global trade environment remains uncertain. American tariffs and a sluggish European manufacturing sector pose downside risks, potentially limiting the extent of export-driven growth.
Corporate insolvencies have grown for three consecutive years – and by double digits in 2023 and 2024 – and they are expected to remain high in 2025, as companies struggle with high labour and energy costs, but ease slightly over the year due to better domestic demand and lower interest costs.
Rising debt should not be an issue
Sweden's current account balance is expected to maintain its stable surplus in 2025, supported by continued strength in the balance of goods and primary income. Balance of services should see an improvement of its deficit in 2025 although it is still expected to remain negative (partly due to some intellectual property uses). The balance of goods may see some moderation, but improvements in services and primary income should help sustain a healthy surplus, keeping Sweden's external position resilient.
In 2025, Sweden’s public deficit is projected to narrow despite increased government spending and tax cuts. This is primarily due to higher tax revenues due to a better tax base, which will help offset the fiscal expansion. As a result, public debt is expected to rise slightly, though it will remain at very manageable levels, especially in comparison to other advanced economies.
Tighter immigration policy domestically and focus on defence spending
Sweden's political landscape is expected to be more policy focused with no elections in 2025, neither European Parliament or municipal, and the next general election not scheduled until 2026. The current government, comprising the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, along with the support of the far-right Swedish Democrats, are just below 50% of votes in polls, with the Swedish Democrats and Moderates neck and neck as the largest party supporting the government.
Amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and Sweden’s recent accession to NATO, defence spending is set to rise rapidly, reaching an estimated 2.4% of GDP in 2025. Immigration remains a key political issue, with ongoing debates over stricter citizenship requirements, including proposals to extend the residency period from five to eight years and revoke citizenship from dual nationals convicted of serious crimes. Meanwhile, law and order continue to rank among voters' top concerns, shaping much of the domestic policy agenda.